Tropical Storm Francine formed in the Gulf of Mexico on Monday and is forecasted to strengthen into a low-end Category 1 hurricane by Wednesday, with a potential landfall along the Upper Texas or southwestern Louisiana coasts.
A hurricane watch has been issued for parts of the Louisiana coast, indicating possible hurricane conditions within the next 48 hours.
Earlier, a tropical storm watch was issued for southern Texas, from Port Mansfield to the Rio Grande River, signaling the possibility of tropical storm-force winds by Tuesday evening. Another tropical storm watch is in effect further south along the Mexican coast to Barra del Tordo.
As of Monday morning, Francine was centered about 245 miles south-southeast of the mouth of the Rio Grande and roughly 480 miles south of Cameron, Louisiana. The storm, with sustained winds of 50 mph, was moving slowly north-northwest at 5 mph.
Francine is the sixth named storm of the season
Francine is the sixth named storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season and the first since Ernesto dissipated on August 20.
It is one of three systems currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center. Another system, located in the central tropical Atlantic, has a 60% chance of developing into a tropical storm within 48 hours. A third system, farther east, has a 60% chance of developing over the next week.
The center’s forecast predicts that Hurricane Francine will reach low-end Category 1 status on Wednesday, with sustained winds of 85 mph. The storm is expected to bring 4 to 8 inches of rainfall to coastal areas, with some locations in northeastern Mexico and along the Texas and Louisiana coasts potentially receiving up to 12 inches by Thursday, posing a risk of flash flooding.
Francine is projected to accelerate northeastward by late Tuesday as it encounters a cold front along the Gulf Coast. It is expected to be just offshore near the Texas coast, moving toward a potential landfall along the upper Texas or Louisiana coasts on Wednesday, according to Donald Jones, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service office in Lake Charles, Louisiana, during a Sunday night briefing.
The storm could possibly become a Category 2
Jones urged residents in southwestern Louisiana to stay alert and monitor the weather closely, noting that there is a possibility the storm could strengthen into a Category 2 hurricane. As of now, landfall is expected to occur on Wednesday evening along the southwestern Louisiana coast, he added.
Gulf water temperatures are warmer than usual, which could support hurricane development, according to Jones. Once the system forms a well-defined center, the hurricane center noted that steady strengthening is possible. The storm will move over the warm Gulf, where there is abundant moisture, but it could face increased wind shear and slightly drier air, which might limit significant strengthening.
“We’re expecting 8 to 12 inches of rainfall south of Interstate 10 in southwestern Louisiana,” Jones stated.
Currently, the greatest threat is flooding, Jones added. The tropical storm’s track shifted slightly eastward on Sunday and could continue to move farther east, he noted.
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